How Nigeria can reflate the economy after oil production quota cap at 1.38 m/bpd – Analyst  

Article summary 

• During the June 4 meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Nigeria agreed to a production quota cap of 1.38 million barrels per day between January to December 2024.  

• At the meeting, OPEC and Non-OPEC members decided to cut production volumes in order to ensure global oil market stability.  
• Chief Executive Officer of Dairy Hills, Kelvin Emmanuel tells NewsTimes that it is important for the government and stakeholders to put a plan together on how to reflate the Nigerian economy, following the oil production quota cap.  

Nigeria can reflate its economy after the oil production quota cap at 1.38 million barrels per day, an analyst suggests various measures that could be taken.

The decision to implement a production quota cap was made during the recent meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on June 6.  

This move aims to ensure stability in the global oil market by reducing production volumes. As the country adjusts to these new conditions, it becomes crucial for the Nigerian government and stakeholders to devise a plan to revitalize the economy. 

Why it is important to remove Nigeria from the oil price benchmark

In a brief chat with NewsTimes, Kelvin Emmanuel, the Chief Executive Officer of Dairy Hills, emphasized the significance of Nigeria’s Oil & Gas sector as the most influential tool for reflating the country’s economy. However, he expresses concerns that the production quota cap may discourage new investments in deep offshore and frontier basins.  

To counteract this potential setback, Emmanuel asserts the need for Nigeria to undertake serious economic reforms. One crucial area that requires attention, according to Emmanuel, is the removal of Nigeria from the oil price benchmark and production quota system.  

He said: 

• “Nigeria’s oil and gas sector remains the most potent tool for reflating Nigeria’s economy. The recent decision to cap the oil production quota at 1.38 million barrels per day citing realistic conditions is a disincentive for new investments in both deep offshore and frontier basins.   
• “Nigeria needs to get serious about economic reforms and an important area to look at is removing Nigeria from the oil price benchmark and production quota, where the government caps its revenue to the oil price, and is forced to create a supplementary budget if oil prices drop consistently above benchmark price.”   

According to him, the quota system currently restricts the government’s revenue to the oil price, forcing the creation of supplementary budgets whenever oil prices consistently drop above the benchmark price. By eliminating this dependency, Nigeria can achieve greater financial flexibility and reduce vulnerability to oil market fluctuations. 

Emmanuel further suggests that Nigeria should transition from a fiscal strategy that relies on debt financing to fund deficits to one that generates budget surpluses with a revenue-to-GDP ratio exceeding 20%. To realize this goal, he proposes several measures. 

How to increase Nigeria’s LNG output from the current 22 million tons per annum

Firstly, NNPC Limited, the national oil company, should raise funds from the capital market to finance liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. This investment would significantly increase Nigeria’s LNG output from the current 22 million tons per annum to 70 million tons per annum.  

Additionally, Emmanuel recommends contributing counterpart funding to finance the development of Trains 8, 9, and 10 in the deep offshore region. Moreover, NNPC Limited should allocate some of the funds raised, either through debt or equity capital markets, to finance its 50% equity contribution to the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project.  

This pipeline, spanning 5,660 kilometers, holds significant potential for boosting Nigeria’s energy sector and stimulating economic growth. In conclusion, the implementation of the oil production quota cap presents Nigeria with an opportunity to reevaluate its economic strategy and pursue necessary reforms. 

By focusing on diversifying the economy away from oil dependence, leveraging the potential of the oil and gas sector, and exploring investment opportunities in LNG projects and gas pipelines, Nigeria can work towards reflating its economy and ensuring sustainable growth in the long term. 

What you should know

According to Amena Bakr, chief OPEC correspondent, there will be an independent review of African countries’ actual production capacities before the next OPEC Plus meeting in November 2023. 

• Nigeria’s current oil production quota is 1.8 million barrels per day. But the country has not been able to meet it mainly because of crude oil theft and gross underinvestment in the sector.